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Necaxa vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2021

Necaxa
Necaxa
Preview
23:00
Monterrey
Monterrey
7/26/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Victoria
Big match
39%
Monterrey
model favours
35%26%39%

Monterrey have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Necaxa35%
×Draw26%
Monterrey39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.31
Monterrey
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 100 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.34
Monterrey
1.45

allows per match

Necaxa
1.33
Monterrey
1.29

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
61%
Necaxa or Monterrey
74%
Draw or Monterrey
65%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
16%
Monterrey wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
73%
Necaxa 2+ goals
38%
Necaxa 3+ goals
14%
Monterrey 1+ goals
75%
Monterrey 2+ goals
40%
Monterrey 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
48%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.33 · 87 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.29 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.34 + Monterrey defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Monterrey attack 1.45 + Necaxa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Necaxa scores more
35%
level
26%
Monterrey scores more
39%

Monterrey at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Monterrey outscore their xG (1.8 vs 0.7 expected)
  • Necaxa outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Necaxa
Defensively solid
Monterrey
Balanced
52%Possession54%
79%Pass accuracy84%
14.3Shots14.4
1.14xGBiggest gap0.68
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NecaxaMonterrey

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Necaxa
0
Draws
9
Monterrey
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 30%
0–20–30–10–12–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Necaxa
WDWW
Monterrey
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Necaxa vs Monterrey — Match Preview

Necaxa face Monterrey on July 26, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Necaxa host Monterrey at Estadio Victoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.