Necaxa 2–5 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 0

Monterrey

H. Jurado 90+6'

D. Cambindo 59'

B. Vázquez 86'

A. González 81'

Sergio Canales 64', 52'

G. Berterame 50'

4/29/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Necaxa37%

×Draw26%

Monterrey37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

Necaxa

1.32

Monterrey

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 155 away

1.36

creates per match

1.35

1.29

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Monterrey

1.35

allows per match

Necaxa

1.29

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Monterrey

74%

Draw or Monterrey

63%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

17%

Monterrey wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

73%

Necaxa 2+ goals

38%

Necaxa 3+ goals

15%

Monterrey 1+ goals

73%

Monterrey 2+ goals

38%

Monterrey 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

50%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Monterrey attack 1.35 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

37%

level

26%

Monterrey scores more

37%

Necaxa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Sergio Canales

Monterrey · M

8.5

Match Events

-5'

39'

41'

44'

46'

É. Gutiérrez← S. Medina

50'

G. Berterame↳ L. Romo

52'

Sergio Canales↳ J. Rodríguez

58'

H. Jurado← A. Mayorga

58'

R. Monreal← B. Samudio

59'

D. Cambindo↳ R. Monreal

64'

67'

67'

74'

75'

Édgar Méndez← D. Gómez

75'

A. González← J. Cortizo

75'

O. Govea← V. Guzmán

76'

Fernando Arce Jr.

81'

A. González↳ J. Gallardo

83'

A. Colorado← J. Paradela

83'

A. Andrade← F. Arce

86'

B. Vázquez↳ A. González

90+6'

H. Jurado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaMonterrey

Overview

35%Possession65%

16Total Shots8

5Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots8

8On Target6

6Off Target0

2Blocked2

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

285Total Passes532

203Accurate Passes455

71%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1