Monterrey 1–0 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monterrey

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Necaxa

F. Ambríz 45'

2/2/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 5Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Monterrey52%

×Draw24%

Necaxa24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.11

Monterrey

1.73

Necaxa

1.11

Monterrey creates 56% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 140 away

1.75

creates per match

1.26

0.97

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Monterrey

1.75

Necaxa

1.26

allows per match

Monterrey

0.97

Necaxa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

76%

Monterrey or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

48%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

28%

Necaxa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

82%

Monterrey 2+ goals

52%

Monterrey 3+ goals

25%

Necaxa 1+ goals

67%

Necaxa 2+ goals

30%

Necaxa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

68%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + Necaxa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Necaxa attack 1.26 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Monterrey scores more

52%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

24%

Monterrey at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Ambríz

Monterrey · M

8.5

Match Events

17'

39'

45+3'

45+4'

45'

F. Ambríz↳ Sergio Canales

46'

H. Moreno← V. Guzmán

57'

P. Pérez← R. Monreal

59'

Óliver Torres← J. Corona

71'

R. Sandoval← A. Mayorga

72'

T. Badaloni← D. Cambindo

76'

I. Fimbres← N. Deossa

76'

G. Arteaga← L. Reyes

76'

A. Alvarado← Sergio Canales

83'

E. Aguirre

85'

A. Andrade← J. Rodríguez

85'

Á. Chávez← D. de Buen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyNecaxa

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots16

5Corners11

17Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target5

8Off Target6

4Blocked5

10Inside Box9

7Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

386Total Passes490

309Accurate Passes401

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2