Necaxa 1–2 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Monterrey

B. Garnica 37'

A. González 77'

R. Aguirre 56'

8/13/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa37%

×Draw26%

Monterrey37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.33

Necaxa

1.32

Monterrey

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 154 away

1.36

creates per match

1.36

1.30

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Monterrey

1.36

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Monterrey

74%

Draw or Monterrey

63%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Monterrey wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

73%

Necaxa 2+ goals

38%

Necaxa 3+ goals

15%

Monterrey 1+ goals

74%

Monterrey 2+ goals

38%

Monterrey 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

50%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

37%

level

26%

Monterrey scores more

37%

Necaxa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. González

Monterrey · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Milton Giménez

32'

Érick Aguirre

37'

B. Garnica

45+2'

Rogelio Funes MoriPenalty cancelled

56'

R. Aguirre↳ M. Meza

58'

Celso Ortiz

61'

G. Berterame← C. Ortiz

61'

J. Gallardo← H. Moreno

71'

H. Jurado← M. Giménez

71'

R. Pizarro← R. Aguirre

77'

C. Montes← É. Aguirre

77'

A. González↳ R. Funes Mori

80'

R. Monreal← A. Araos

85'

Alexis Peña

89'

D. Gómez← B. Garnica

89'

J. Godínez← F. Madrigal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaMonterrey

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots17

2Corners6

13Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target6

9Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box9

8Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

350Total Passes314

265Accurate Passes219

76%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Liga MX: Necaxa 1–2 Monterrey

Monterrey beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on August 13, 2022.

Goals: B. Garnica (37'), R. Aguirre (56'), A. González (77').

Necaxa controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.

Necaxa vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga MX: Necaxa 1–2 Monterrey