Necaxa 0–4 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Monterrey

J. Gallardo 67'

D. Vergara 43'

M. Meza 23'

R. Funes Mori 4'

1/15/2022

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa37%

×Draw26%

Monterrey37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.33

Necaxa

1.32

Monterrey

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 154 away

1.36

creates per match

1.36

1.30

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

Monterrey

1.36

allows per match

Necaxa

1.30

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

63%

Necaxa or Monterrey

74%

Draw or Monterrey

63%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

16%

Monterrey wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

73%

Necaxa 2+ goals

38%

Necaxa 3+ goals

15%

Monterrey 1+ goals

74%

Monterrey 2+ goals

38%

Monterrey 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

50%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more

37%

level

26%

Monterrey scores more

37%

Necaxa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Meza

Monterrey · M

8.9

Match Events

4'

R. Funes Mori↳ M. Meza

23'

M. Meza↳ C. Montes

25'

S. Vegas

43'

D. Vergara↳ L. Romo

46'

D. Gómez← J. Escoboza

46'

M. Salas← N. Castillo

46'

L. García← L. Quintana

48'

M. Salas

60'

D. Vergara

66'

F. Batista← J. Valdivia

66'

J. Gallardo← D. Vergara

66'

V. Janssen← R. Funes Mori

67'

J. Gallardo↳ V. Janssen

73'

M. Kranevitter← S. Vegas

73'

Erick Aguirre← C. Ortiz

75'

M. Pedroza← R. González

77'

J. Campbell← A. González

90+2'

V. JanssenGoal Disallowed - offside

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaMonterrey

Overview

63%Possession37%

5Total Shots20

5Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots20

4On Target7

1Off Target11

0Blocked2

1Inside Box12

4Outside Box8

Passing

63%Possession37%

481Total Passes276

425Accurate Passes225

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2