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Necaxa vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Monterrey
Monterreyadvanced
R. Funes Mori 90+5'
12/8/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Necaxa53%
×Draw24%
Monterrey23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.73
Monterrey
1.04

Necaxa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.71
Monterrey
1.17

allows per match

Necaxa
0.92
Monterrey
1.76

finishing

Necaxa+0.29scores more
Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
77%
Necaxa or Monterrey
76%
Draw or Monterrey
47%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
29%
Monterrey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
82%
Necaxa 2+ goals
52%
Necaxa 3+ goals
25%
Monterrey 1+ goals
65%
Monterrey 2+ goals
28%
Monterrey 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
70%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.71 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Necaxa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Necaxa scores more
53%
level
24%
Monterrey scores more
23%

Necaxa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. BaroveroMonterreyMonterrey · G
8.0

Match Events

16'
Leonel Vangioni
43'
Vincent Janssen
43'
R. Funes Mori← V. Janssen
60'
M. Salas← K. Mercado
64'
J. Gónzalez← C. Ortiz
72'
E. Herrera← F. Gallegos
73'
Claudio Baeza
75'
M. Layún← D. Pabón
77'
R. Contreras← R. Chávez
78'
Rodolfo Pizarro
90+5'
R. Funes Mori↳ R. Pizarro

Possession

59%Necaxa

Shots

18Necaxa

Pass accuracy

54%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaMonterrey
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots8
6Corners7
11Fouls9
Shots
18Total Shots8
6On Target5
7Off Target3
5Blocked0
8Inside Box5
10Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
400Total Passes278
304Accurate Passes179
76%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides5

Liga MX: Necaxa 0–1 Monterrey

Monterrey beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on December 8, 2019.

Goals: R. Funes Mori (90+5').

Necaxa controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes in Aguascalientes.