Necaxa 1–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Necaxa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

F. Gallegos 71'

D. Pabón 10'

11/11/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Necaxa53%

×Draw24%

Monterrey23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.04

Necaxa

1.73

Monterrey

1.04

Necaxa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.71

creates per match

1.17

0.92

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Necaxa

1.71

Monterrey

1.17

allows per match

Necaxa

0.92

Monterrey

1.76

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Necaxa+0.29scores more

Monterrey-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

77%

Necaxa or Monterrey

76%

Draw or Monterrey

47%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

29%

Monterrey wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

82%

Necaxa 2+ goals

52%

Necaxa 3+ goals

25%

Monterrey 1+ goals

65%

Monterrey 2+ goals

28%

Monterrey 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

70%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.92 · 5 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.71 + Monterrey defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Monterrey attack 1.17 + Necaxa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Necaxa scores more

53%

level

24%

Monterrey scores more

23%

Necaxa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

B. Beckeles

Necaxa · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

D. Pabón↳ L. Vangioni

46'

F. Castro← F. Córdova

69'

G. Madrigal← J. Gallardo

71'

F. Gallegos↳ B. Fernández

74'

C. Riaño← B. Fernández

80'

L. Hernández← L. López

83'

Leonel Vangioni

90'

Stefan Medina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NecaxaMonterrey

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots8

6Corners5

13Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots8

3On Target2

9Off Target5

1Blocked1

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

527Total Passes350

453Accurate Passes270

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1