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Necaxa vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
T. Badaloni 0'
D. Leyva 0'
R. Monreal 0'
12/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Necaxa84%
×Draw10%
Mineros de Zacatecas6%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
3.63
Mineros de Zacatecas
0.98

Necaxa creates 270% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Necaxa
2.60
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.17

allows per match

Necaxa
0.80
Mineros de Zacatecas
4.67

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
94%
Necaxa or Mineros de Zacatecas
90%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
16%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
67%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
97%
Necaxa 2+ goals
87%
Necaxa 3+ goals
68%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
62%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
26%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
93%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 2.60 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.63

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.17 + Necaxa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Necaxa scores more
84%
level
10%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
6%

Necaxa at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'
T. Badaloni
0'
D. Leyva
0'
R. Monreal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Necaxa beat Mineros de Zacatecas 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on December 18, 2025.

Goals: T. Badaloni (0'), D. Leyva (0'), R. Monreal (0').