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Necaxa vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
8 – 1
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
6/30/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Necaxa81%
×Draw11%
Mineros de Zacatecas8%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
3.75
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.20

Necaxa creates 213% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Necaxa
2.50
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.40

allows per match

Necaxa
1.00
Mineros de Zacatecas
5.00

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
92%
Necaxa or Mineros de Zacatecas
89%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
19%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
64%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
97%
Necaxa 2+ goals
88%
Necaxa 3+ goals
70%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
70%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
34%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
91%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 2.50 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.40 + Necaxa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Necaxa scores more
81%
level
11%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
8%

Necaxa at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Necaxa 8–1 Mineros de Zacatecas

Necaxa beat Mineros de Zacatecas 8-1 in Friendlies Clubs on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.