NEC U21 2–1 Heerenveen U21: Result & Stats

NEC U21

FT

2 – 1

Heerenveen U21

10/2/2021

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 5MSC De Eendracht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NEC U2139%

×Draw24%

Heerenveen U2137%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NEC U21Expected goals in this matchHeerenveen U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.52

NEC U21

1.57

Heerenveen U21

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

1.15

creates per match

1.00

2.05

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

NEC U21

1.15

Heerenveen U21

1.00

allows per match

NEC U21

2.05

Heerenveen U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NEC U21+0.00on par

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC U21 ↓

Heerenveen U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

NEC U21 or draw

63%

NEC U21 or Heerenveen U21

76%

Draw or Heerenveen U21

61%

Winning margin

NEC U21 wins by 2+

19%

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

NEC U21 1+ goals

79%

NEC U21 2+ goals

46%

NEC U21 3+ goals

21%

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals

78%

Heerenveen U21 2+ goals

45%

Heerenveen U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

NEC U21 (draw refunded)

51%

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC U21 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

Heerenveen U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC U21 attack 1.15 + Heerenveen U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.00 + NEC U21 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NEC U21 scores more

39%

level

24%

Heerenveen U21 scores more

37%

NEC U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NEC U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff