Heerenveen U21 vs NEC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Heerenveen U2138%
NEC U2139%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 10 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Heerenveen U21 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches
NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65
NEC U21 attack 1.42 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.66
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
NEC U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "NEC U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Heerenveen U21 host NEC U21 on Saturday, 12 December 2020 at 14:00. The match is part of the U21 Divisie 1 2020/2021 season.
Heerenveen U21 face NEC U21 (U21 Divisie 1)
U21 Divisie 1 returns with Heerenveen U21 hosting NEC U21. Match starts December 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Heerenveen U21 host NEC U21 at Sportpark Skoatterwâld.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.