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NEC U21 vs Almere City II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NEC U21
NEC U21
FT
1 – 5
Almere City II
Almere City II
9/25/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 4MSC De Eendracht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NEC U2126%
×Draw22%
Almere City II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC U21
1.39
Almere City II
2.04

Almere City II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

creates per match

NEC U21
1.15
Almere City II
2.03

allows per match

NEC U21
2.05
Almere City II
1.62

finishing

NEC U21+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC U21 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

NEC U21 or draw
48%
NEC U21 or Almere City II
78%
Draw or Almere City II
74%

Winning margin

NEC U21 wins by 2+
11%
Almere City II wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

NEC U21 1+ goals
75%
NEC U21 2+ goals
40%
NEC U21 3+ goals
16%
Almere City II 1+ goals
87%
Almere City II 2+ goals
60%
Almere City II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

NEC U21 (draw refunded)
33%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC U21 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC U21 attack 1.15 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Almere City II attack 2.03 + NEC U21 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NEC U21 scores more
26%
level
22%
Almere City II scores more
52%

Almere City II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC U21 vs Almere City II

Almere City II beat NEC U21 5-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at MSC De Eendracht in Nijmegen.