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Almere City II vs NEC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
4 – 0
NEC U21
NEC U21
9/12/2020U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Round 2Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen - Almere C - veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Almere City II56%
×Draw20%
NEC U2123%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.21
NEC U21
1.36

Almere City II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.31
NEC U21
1.42

allows per match

Almere City II
1.31
NEC U21
2.11

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
NEC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

NEC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
77%
Almere City II or NEC U21
80%
Draw or NEC U21
44%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
35%
NEC U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
89%
Almere City II 2+ goals
65%
Almere City II 3+ goals
38%
NEC U21 1+ goals
74%
NEC U21 2+ goals
39%
NEC U21 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
71%
NEC U21 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.31 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.21

NEC U21 attack 1.42 + Almere City II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Almere City II scores more
56%
level
20%
NEC U21 scores more
23%

Almere City II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almere City II 4 – 0 NEC U21

Almere City II beat NEC U21 4-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen - Almere C - veld 1 in Almere.