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NEC U21 vs ADO Den Haag II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NEC U21
NEC U21
FT
2 – 1
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
2/5/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 14MSC De Eendracht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NEC U2137%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC U21
1.63
ADO Den Haag II
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 55 away

creates per match

NEC U21
1.15
ADO Den Haag II
1.36

allows per match

NEC U21
2.05
ADO Den Haag II
2.11

finishing

NEC U21+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

NEC U21 or draw
60%
NEC U21 or ADO Den Haag II
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
63%

Winning margin

NEC U21 wins by 2+
18%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

NEC U21 1+ goals
80%
NEC U21 2+ goals
48%
NEC U21 3+ goals
22%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
82%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
51%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

NEC U21 (draw refunded)
48%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC U21 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC U21 attack 1.15 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + NEC U21 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NEC U21 scores more
37%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
40%

ADO Den Haag II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC U21 vs ADO Den Haag II

NEC U21 beat ADO Den Haag II 2-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at MSC De Eendracht in Nijmegen.