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ADO Den Haag II vs NEC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
FT
3 – 1
NEC U21
NEC U21
9/18/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 3Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ADO Den Haag II46%
×Draw22%
NEC U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
2.00
NEC U21
1.67

ADO Den Haag II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
NEC U21
1.42

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
NEC U21
2.11

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
NEC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

NEC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
67%
ADO Den Haag II or NEC U21
78%
Draw or NEC U21
54%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
26%
NEC U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
86%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
59%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
32%
NEC U21 1+ goals
81%
NEC U21 2+ goals
50%
NEC U21 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
58%
NEC U21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

NEC U21 attack 1.42 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
46%
level
22%
NEC U21 scores more
33%

ADO Den Haag II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: ADO Den Haag II 3–1 NEC U21

ADO Den Haag II beat NEC U21 3-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1 in Den Haag.