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NEC Nijmegen vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
10/18/2019Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Goffertstadion (Nijmegen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

NEC Nijmegen53%
×Draw22%
Jong PSV U2125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Nijmegen
2.01
Jong PSV U21
1.33

NEC Nijmegen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 149 away

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.96
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.15
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw
75%
NEC Nijmegen or Jong PSV U21
78%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
47%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
31%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
87%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
59%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
32%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
74%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
38%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
68%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.96 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.01

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more
53%
level
22%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
25%

NEC Nijmegen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NEC Nijmegen vs Jong PSV U21

NEC Nijmegen beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Goffertstadion (Nijmegen).