Jong PSV U21 1–2 NEC Nijmegen: Result & Stats

Jong PSV U21

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

NEC Nijmegen

4/8/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 33Jan Louwers Stadion (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Jong PSV U2138%

×Draw23%

NEC Nijmegen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong PSV U21Expected goals in this matchNEC Nijmegen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.65

Jong PSV U21

1.61

NEC Nijmegen

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 53 away

1.67

creates per match

1.70

1.59

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Jong PSV U21

1.67

NEC Nijmegen

1.70

allows per match

Jong PSV U21

1.59

NEC Nijmegen

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

NEC Nijmegen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw

61%

Jong PSV U21 or NEC Nijmegen

77%

Draw or NEC Nijmegen

62%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+

19%

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals

80%

Jong PSV U21 2+ goals

48%

Jong PSV U21 3+ goals

22%

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals

81%

NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals

49%

NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)

49%

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.70 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more

38%

level

23%

NEC Nijmegen scores more

39%

NEC Nijmegen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff