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NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Heracles
Heracles
9/21/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 6Goffertstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

NEC Nijmegen57%
×Draw22%
Heracles21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Nijmegen
1.97
Heracles
1.11

NEC Nijmegen creates 77% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 117 away

creates per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.82
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

NEC Nijmegen
1.43
Heracles
2.12

finishing

NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Nijmegen ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NEC Nijmegen or draw
79%
NEC Nijmegen or Heracles
78%
Draw or Heracles
43%

Winning margin

NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
34%
Heracles wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
86%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
58%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
31%
Heracles 1+ goals
67%
Heracles 2+ goals
30%
Heracles 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
73%
Heracles (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Nijmegen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.43 · 88 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.82 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

Heracles attack 0.79 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

NEC Nijmegen scores more
57%
level
22%
Heracles scores more
21%

NEC Nijmegen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "NEC Nijmegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Heracles

Heracles beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1 in Eredivisie on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Goffertstadion in Nijmegen.