Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie 2018

Heracles
Heracles
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
5/18/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 34Asito Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Heracles39%
×Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heracles
1.56
NEC Nijmegen
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 90 away

creates per match

Heracles
1.73
NEC Nijmegen
1.44

allows per match

Heracles
1.62
NEC Nijmegen
1.40

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par
NEC Nijmegen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

NEC Nijmegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Heracles or draw
63%
Heracles or NEC Nijmegen
76%
Draw or NEC Nijmegen
61%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+
19%
NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals
79%
Heracles 2+ goals
46%
Heracles 3+ goals
21%
NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
78%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
45%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)
51%
NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.44 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heracles scores more
39%
level
24%
NEC Nijmegen scores more
37%

Heracles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 2-1 in Eredivisie on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Asito Stadion in Almelo.