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Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca — 1. Division 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
1/12/20241. Division1. Division · Round 19Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Nea Salamis30%
×Draw26%
AEK Larnaca44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.16
AEK Larnaca
1.47

AEK Larnaca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 118 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
1.26
AEK Larnaca
1.29

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.65
AEK Larnaca
1.06

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
56%
Nea Salamis or AEK Larnaca
74%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
70%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
12%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
69%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
32%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
11%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
77%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
43%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
40%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 1.26 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

AEK Larnaca attack 1.29 + Nea Salamis defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
30%
level
26%
AEK Larnaca scores more
44%

AEK Larnaca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Nea Salamis 0–1 AEK Larnaca

AEK Larnaca beat Nea Salamis 1-0 in 1. Division on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Vitex Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.