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Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca — Cup 2019

Nea Salamis
Nea Salamis
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
1/11/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundStadio Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nea Salamis36%
×Draw23%
AEK Larnaca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nea Salamis
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Nea Salamis
2.11
AEK Larnaca
2.42

allows per match

Nea Salamis
1.11
AEK Larnaca
1.17

finishing

Nea Salamis+0.00on par
AEK Larnaca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nea Salamis ↓

AEK Larnaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nea Salamis or draw
59%
Nea Salamis or AEK Larnaca
77%
Draw or AEK Larnaca
64%

Winning margin

Nea Salamis wins by 2+
18%
AEK Larnaca wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nea Salamis 1+ goals
81%
Nea Salamis 2+ goals
49%
Nea Salamis 3+ goals
23%
AEK Larnaca 1+ goals
83%
AEK Larnaca 2+ goals
53%
AEK Larnaca 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Nea Salamis (draw refunded)
47%
AEK Larnaca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nea Salamis at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

AEK Larnaca away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nea Salamis attack 2.11 + AEK Larnaca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.64

AEK Larnaca attack 2.42 + Nea Salamis defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nea Salamis scores more
36%
level
23%
AEK Larnaca scores more
41%

AEK Larnaca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AEK Larnaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Nea Salamis 4–0 AEK Larnaca

Nea Salamis beat AEK Larnaca 4-0 in Cup on January 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.