NC Magra 3–2 JSM Skikda: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

NC Magra

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

JSM Skikda

S. Khelili 86'

A. Demane 81'

M. Bourahla 47'

K. Merzougui 90+2' (pen), 70'

3/13/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Municipal de Magra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

NC Magra57%

×Draw28%

JSM Skikda16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NC MagraExpected goals in this matchJSM Skikda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.59

NC Magra

1.39

JSM Skikda

0.59

NC Magra creates 136% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 35 away

1.20

creates per match

0.37

0.82

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

NC Magra

1.20

JSM Skikda

0.37

allows per match

NC Magra

0.82

JSM Skikda

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par

JSM Skikda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

JSM Skikda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw

84%

NC Magra or JSM Skikda

72%

Draw or JSM Skikda

43%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+

28%

JSM Skikda wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals

75%

NC Magra 2+ goals

40%

NC Magra 3+ goals

16%

JSM Skikda 1+ goals

45%

JSM Skikda 2+ goals

12%

JSM Skikda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)

78%

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

JSM Skikda away — creates 0.37, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + JSM Skikda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

JSM Skikda attack 0.37 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

NC Magra scores more

57%

level

28%

JSM Skikda scores more

16%

NC Magra at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

M. Bourahla

63'

65'

B. Hainikoye← N. Korichi

65'

I. Bouda← A. Aissa El Bey

70'

H. Salah← H. Bouguèche

70'

K. Merzougui

79'

A. Demane← A. Bouchouareb

80'

W. Djaballah Boudjebiba← Z. Benhocine

81'

A. Demane

86'

S. Khelili

90+2'

K. MerzouguiPenalty

NC

JSM

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Merine

65'▲B. Hainikoye←▼N. Korichi

70'▲H. Salah←▼H. Bouguèche

79'▲A. Demane←▼A. Bouchouareb

NC Magra substitutes

HainikoyeSalahDemane

Manager: Y. Ifticen

65'▲I. Bouda←▼A. Aissa El Bey

80'▲W. Djaballah Boudjebiba←▼Z. Benhocine

JSM Skikda substitutes

BoudaBoudjebiba