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JSM Skikda vs NC Magra — League #187 2026

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
1 – 2
NC Magra
NC Magra
11/17/2018League #187League #187 · Round 14Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Skikda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JSM Skikda37%
×Draw29%
NC Magra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.14
NC Magra
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.60
NC Magra
1.33

allows per match

JSM Skikda
0.80
NC Magra
0.67

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

NC Magra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
67%
JSM Skikda or NC Magra
71%
Draw or NC Magra
63%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
15%
NC Magra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
68%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
32%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
11%
NC Magra 1+ goals
65%
NC Magra 2+ goals
29%
NC Magra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
53%
NC Magra (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

NC Magra away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.60 + NC Magra defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

NC Magra attack 1.33 + JSM Skikda defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
37%
level
29%
NC Magra scores more
33%

JSM Skikda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: JSM Skikda 1–2 NC Magra

NC Magra beat JSM Skikda 2-1 in League #187 on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Skikda).