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NC Magra vs CS Constantine — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CS Constantine
CS Constantine
7/1/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade Municipal de Magra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

NC Magra42%
×Draw30%
CS Constantine28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
1.16
CS Constantine
0.89

NC Magra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 124 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
CS Constantine
0.96

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
CS Constantine
1.12

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

CS Constantine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
72%
NC Magra or CS Constantine
70%
Draw or CS Constantine
58%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
18%
CS Constantine wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
69%
NC Magra 2+ goals
32%
NC Magra 3+ goals
11%
CS Constantine 1+ goals
59%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
22%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
60%
CS Constantine (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NC Magra scores more
42%
level
30%
CS Constantine scores more
28%

NC Magra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NC Magra vs CS Constantine

NC Magra beat CS Constantine 2-1 in Ligue 1 on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Magra in Magra.