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CS Constantine vs NC Magra — Ligue 1 2018

CS Constantine
CS Constantine
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NC Magra
NC Magra
11/17/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6Stade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

CS Constantine56%
×Draw26%
NC Magra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Constantine
1.50
NC Magra
0.71

CS Constantine creates 111% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 92 away

creates per match

CS Constantine
1.50
NC Magra
0.68

allows per match

CS Constantine
0.74
NC Magra
1.50

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par
NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

NC Magra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw
82%
CS Constantine or NC Magra
74%
Draw or NC Magra
44%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+
29%
NC Magra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals
78%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
44%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
19%
NC Magra 1+ goals
51%
NC Magra 2+ goals
16%
NC Magra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)
76%
NC Magra (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

NC Magra attack 0.68 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CS Constantine scores more
56%
level
26%
NC Magra scores more
18%

CS Constantine at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CS Constantine vs NC Magra

NC Magra beat CS Constantine 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ben-Abdelmalek-Ramdhan in Constantine.