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NC Magra vs ASO Chlef — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ASO Chlef
ASO Chlef
12/9/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Municipal de Magra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

NC Magra47%
×Draw28%
ASO Chlef25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
1.30
ASO Chlef
0.87

NC Magra creates 49% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 106 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
ASO Chlef
0.92

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
ASO Chlef
1.40

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
ASO Chlef+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

ASO Chlef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
75%
NC Magra or ASO Chlef
72%
Draw or ASO Chlef
53%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
22%
ASO Chlef wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
73%
NC Magra 2+ goals
37%
NC Magra 3+ goals
14%
ASO Chlef 1+ goals
58%
ASO Chlef 2+ goals
22%
ASO Chlef 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
65%
ASO Chlef (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

ASO Chlef away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.40 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + ASO Chlef defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

ASO Chlef attack 0.92 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NC Magra scores more
47%
level
28%
ASO Chlef scores more
25%

NC Magra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NC Magra vs ASO Chlef

NC Magra and ASO Chlef drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Magra in Magra.