ASO Chlef 0–1 NC Magra: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

ASO Chlef

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

NC Magra

6/6/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade Mohamed Boumezrag

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

ASO Chlef51%

×Draw29%

NC Magra21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ASO ChlefExpected goals in this matchNC Magra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.73

ASO Chlef

1.32

NC Magra

0.73

ASO Chlef creates 81% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 92 away

1.15

creates per match

0.68

0.77

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

ASO Chlef

1.15

NC Magra

0.68

allows per match

ASO Chlef

0.77

NC Magra

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ASO Chlef+0.00on par

NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASO Chlef ↓

NC Magra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ASO Chlef or draw

79%

ASO Chlef or NC Magra

71%

Draw or NC Magra

49%

Winning margin

ASO Chlef wins by 2+

24%

NC Magra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ASO Chlef 1+ goals

73%

ASO Chlef 2+ goals

38%

ASO Chlef 3+ goals

15%

NC Magra 1+ goals

52%

NC Magra 2+ goals

17%

NC Magra 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

ASO Chlef (draw refunded)

71%

NC Magra (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASO Chlef at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.77 · 107 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASO Chlef attack 1.15 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

NC Magra attack 0.68 + ASO Chlef defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ASO Chlef scores more

51%

level

29%

NC Magra scores more

21%

ASO Chlef at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ASO Chlef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff