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NC Magra vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

NC Magra
NC Magra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
3/7/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Martyr Tahar Guidoum (Ras El Oued)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

NC Magra54%
×Draw26%
AS AIN Mlila20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NC Magra
1.51
AS AIN Mlila
0.80

NC Magra creates 89% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 45 away

creates per match

NC Magra
1.20
AS AIN Mlila
0.78

allows per match

NC Magra
0.82
AS AIN Mlila
1.82

finishing

NC Magra+0.00on par
AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NC Magra ↓

AS AIN Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

NC Magra or draw
80%
NC Magra or AS AIN Mlila
74%
Draw or AS AIN Mlila
46%

Winning margin

NC Magra wins by 2+
28%
AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

NC Magra 1+ goals
78%
NC Magra 2+ goals
44%
NC Magra 3+ goals
19%
AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
55%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
19%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NC Magra (draw refunded)
73%
AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NC Magra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.82 · 92 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NC Magra attack 1.20 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.51

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + NC Magra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

NC Magra scores more
54%
level
26%
AS AIN Mlila scores more
20%

NC Magra at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "NC Magra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: NC Magra 0–1 AS AIN Mlila

AS AIN Mlila beat NC Magra 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Martyr Tahar Guidoum (Ras El Oued).