AS AIN Mlila 2–1 NC Magra: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

AS AIN Mlila

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NC Magra

H. Demane 80', 8' (pen)

A. Fegas 16'

12/4/2020

Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS AIN Mlila53%

×Draw29%

NC Magra18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS AIN MlilaExpected goals in this matchNC Magra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.63

AS AIN Mlila

1.29

NC Magra

0.63

AS AIN Mlila creates 105% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 92 away

1.09

creates per match

0.68

0.58

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AS AIN Mlila

1.09

NC Magra

0.68

allows per match

AS AIN Mlila

0.58

NC Magra

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS AIN Mlila ↓

NC Magra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

AS AIN Mlila or draw

82%

AS AIN Mlila or NC Magra

71%

Draw or NC Magra

47%

Winning margin

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

25%

NC Magra wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

72%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

37%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

14%

NC Magra 1+ goals

47%

NC Magra 2+ goals

13%

NC Magra 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

74%

NC Magra (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS AIN Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS AIN Mlila attack 1.09 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

NC Magra attack 0.68 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AS AIN Mlila scores more

53%

level

29%

NC Magra scores more

18%

AS AIN Mlila at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AS AIN Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

H. DemanePenalty

16'

A. Fegas

67'

A. Soltane← A. Belaïli

67'

A. Bouzidi← B. Elmammeri

72'

A. Djabout← M. Zalegh

75'

K. Benkouider← M. Benmerzoug

75'

M. Mehdaoui← A. Bouchouareb

80'

H. Demane

82'

B. Bernou← K. Derbal

AS

NC

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: R. Iaïche

67'▲A. Soltane←▼A. Belaïli

67'▲A. Bouzidi←▼B. Elmammeri

72'▲A. Djabout←▼M. Zalegh

AS AIN Mlila substitutes

SoltaneBouzidiDjabout

Manager: H. Merine

75'▲K. Benkouider←▼M. Benmerzoug

75'▲M. Mehdaoui←▼A. Bouchouareb

82'▲B. Bernou←▼K. Derbal

NC Magra substitutes

BenkouiderMehdaouiBernou