Nazilli Spor 0–3 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Nazilli Spor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

12/4/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundNazıllı İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Nazilli Spor33%

×Draw22%

Göztepe45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nazilli SporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.92

Nazilli Spor

1.60

Göztepe

1.92

Göztepe creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.88

creates per match

2.08

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nazilli Spor

1.88

Göztepe

2.08

allows per match

Nazilli Spor

1.75

Göztepe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nazilli Spor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Nazilli Spor or draw

55%

Nazilli Spor or Göztepe

78%

Draw or Göztepe

67%

Winning margin

Nazilli Spor wins by 2+

16%

Göztepe wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Nazilli Spor 1+ goals

80%

Nazilli Spor 2+ goals

47%

Nazilli Spor 3+ goals

22%

Göztepe 1+ goals

85%

Göztepe 2+ goals

57%

Göztepe 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)

42%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nazilli Spor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nazilli Spor attack 1.88 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Nazilli Spor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nazilli Spor scores more

33%

level

22%

Göztepe scores more

45%

Göztepe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff