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Göztepe vs Nazilli Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nazilli Spor
Nazilli Spor
12/18/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Göztepe77%
×Draw15%
Nazilli Spor8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
2.52
Nazilli Spor
0.66

Göztepe creates 282% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.54
Nazilli Spor
1.00

allows per match

Göztepe
0.31
Nazilli Spor
2.50

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Nazilli Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Nazilli Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
92%
Göztepe or Nazilli Spor
85%
Draw or Nazilli Spor
23%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
55%
Nazilli Spor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
92%
Göztepe 2+ goals
71%
Göztepe 3+ goals
45%
Nazilli Spor 1+ goals
48%
Nazilli Spor 2+ goals
14%
Nazilli Spor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
91%
Nazilli Spor (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Nazilli Spor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + Nazilli Spor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.52

Nazilli Spor attack 1.00 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Göztepe scores more
77%
level
15%
Nazilli Spor scores more
8%

Göztepe at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Nazilli Spor

Göztepe beat Nazilli Spor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 18, 2018.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.