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Navy FC vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
11/13/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Navy FC27%
×Draw26%
Lamphun Warrior47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.04
Lamphun Warrior
1.47

Lamphun Warrior creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
53%
Navy FC or Lamphun Warrior
74%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
73%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
10%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
65%
Navy FC 2+ goals
28%
Navy FC 3+ goals
9%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
77%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
43%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
36%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Navy FC scores more
27%
level
26%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
47%

Lamphun Warrior at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Lamphun Warrior

Navy FC and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.