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Lamphun Warrior vs Navy FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Navy FC
Navy FC
3/26/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior66%
×Draw19%
Navy FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
2.17
Navy FC
0.92

Lamphun Warrior creates 136% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Navy FC
1.02

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Navy FC
2.06

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Navy FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
85%
Lamphun Warrior or Navy FC
81%
Draw or Navy FC
34%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
42%
Navy FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
89%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
64%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
36%
Navy FC 1+ goals
60%
Navy FC 2+ goals
23%
Navy FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
82%
Navy FC (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.17

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
66%
level
19%
Navy FC scores more
15%

Lamphun Warrior at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lamphun Warrior vs Navy FC

Lamphun Warrior beat Navy FC 4-0 in Thai League 2 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.