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Navy FC vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
2/20/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navy FC36%
×Draw27%
Ayutthaya FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.26
Ayutthaya FC
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 101 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
62%
Navy FC or Ayutthaya FC
73%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
64%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
16%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
72%
Navy FC 2+ goals
36%
Navy FC 3+ goals
13%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
73%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
37%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
49%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Navy FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
38%

Ayutthaya FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Ayutthaya FC

Ayutthaya FC beat Navy FC 4-3 in Thai League 2 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.