Ayutthaya FC 3–4 Navy FC: Result & Stats

Ayutthaya FC

FT

3 – 4

Navy FC

2/16/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 1Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ayutthaya FC53%

×Draw23%

Navy FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayutthaya FCExpected goals in this matchNavy FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.14

Ayutthaya FC

1.80

Navy FC

1.14

Ayutthaya FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 51 away

1.54

creates per match

1.02

1.26

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.54

Navy FC

1.02

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.26

Navy FC

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Navy FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Navy FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw

76%

Ayutthaya FC or Navy FC

77%

Draw or Navy FC

47%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

29%

Navy FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

83%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

54%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

27%

Navy FC 1+ goals

68%

Navy FC 2+ goals

32%

Navy FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

69%

Navy FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Navy FC away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Navy FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Navy FC attack 1.02 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more

53%

level

23%

Navy FC scores more

24%

Ayutthaya FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff