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Navbahor vs Neftchi — Super League 2026

Navbahor
Navbahor
Preview
16:00
Neftchi
Neftchi
11/20/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Markaziy Stadium
Big match
36%
Navbahor
model favours
36%30%33%

Top-of-the-table clash — Navbahor 3 vs Neftchi 1

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Navbahor36%
×Draw30%
Neftchi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
1.06
Neftchi
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 61 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.33
Neftchi
1.31

allows per match

Navbahor
0.68
Neftchi
0.79

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 66Over: 3466%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Neftchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
67%
Navbahor or Neftchi
70%
Draw or Neftchi
64%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
14%
Neftchi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
65%
Navbahor 2+ goals
29%
Navbahor 3+ goals
9%
Neftchi 1+ goals
63%
Neftchi 2+ goals
26%
Neftchi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
52%
Neftchi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Navbahor scores more
36%
level
30%
Neftchi scores more
33%

Navbahor at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Neftchi win just 34% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Navbahor
DLDLD
Neftchi
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Navbahor host Neftchi

November 20, 2026: Navbahor take on Neftchi in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Navbahor host Neftchi at Markaziy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.