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Navbahor vs Mumbai City — AFC Champions League 2018

Navbahor
Navbahor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mumbai City
Mumbai City
10/3/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group D - 2Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Navbahor76%
×Draw17%
Mumbai City8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
2.21
Mumbai City
0.54

Navbahor creates 309% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.25
Mumbai City
0.33

allows per match

Navbahor
0.75
Mumbai City
3.17

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Mumbai City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Mumbai City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
92%
Navbahor or Mumbai City
83%
Draw or Mumbai City
24%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
51%
Mumbai City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
89%
Navbahor 2+ goals
65%
Navbahor 3+ goals
38%
Mumbai City 1+ goals
42%
Mumbai City 2+ goals
10%
Mumbai City 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
91%
Mumbai City (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Mumbai City away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.25 + Mumbai City defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.21

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Navbahor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Navbahor scores more
76%
level
17%
Mumbai City scores more
8%

Navbahor at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navbahor vs Mumbai City

Navbahor beat Mumbai City 3-0 in AFC Champions League on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.