Mumbai City 1–2 Navbahor: Result & Stats

Mumbai City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Navbahor

A. El Khayati 15'

J. Đokić 45+3'

J. Iskanderov 29'

12/4/2023

AFC Champions League · Group D - 6Shree Shiv Chhatrapati Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mumbai City16%

×Draw25%

Navbahor59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mumbai CityExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.55

Mumbai City

0.67

Navbahor

1.55

Navbahor creates 131% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.33

creates per match

1.60

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Mumbai City

0.33

Navbahor

1.60

allows per match

Mumbai City

1.50

Navbahor

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mumbai City+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mumbai City ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mumbai City or draw

41%

Mumbai City or Navbahor

75%

Draw or Navbahor

84%

Winning margin

Mumbai City wins by 2+

4%

Navbahor wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Mumbai City 1+ goals

49%

Mumbai City 2+ goals

15%

Mumbai City 3+ goals

3%

Navbahor 1+ goals

79%

Navbahor 2+ goals

46%

Navbahor 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Mumbai City (draw refunded)

21%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mumbai City at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mumbai City attack 0.33 + Navbahor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Navbahor attack 1.60 + Mumbai City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mumbai City scores more

16%

level

25%

Navbahor scores more

59%

Navbahor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Iskanderov

Navbahor · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

14'

15'

28'

29'

45+3'

J. Đokić↳ J. Iskanderov

64'

M. Singh← R. Griffiths

75'

B. Singh← V. Partap Singh

75'

L. Chhangte← A. El Khayati

75'

D. Abdumannopov← L. Čermelj

75'

T. Abdukholikov← T. Tabatadze

83'

J. Rane← L. Ralte

83'

V. Rai← A. Mishra

86'

Lallianzuala Chhangte

90+3'

Doniyor Abdumannopov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MumbaiNavbahor

Overview

72%Possession28%

16Total Shots10

5Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked3

11Inside Box1

5Outside Box9

Passing

72%Possession28%

571Total Passes220

484Accurate Passes136

85%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1