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Navbahor vs Dinamo Samarqand — Super League 2026

Navbahor
Navbahor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
3/1/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Navbahor52%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Samarqand23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
1.56
Dinamo Samarqand
0.94

Navbahor creates 66% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 59 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.34
Dinamo Samarqand
1.22

allows per match

Navbahor
0.66
Dinamo Samarqand
1.78

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
77%
Navbahor or Dinamo Samarqand
75%
Draw or Dinamo Samarqand
48%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
27%
Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
79%
Navbahor 2+ goals
46%
Navbahor 3+ goals
21%
Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals
61%
Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals
24%
Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
69%
Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.66 · 98 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.34 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.22 + Navbahor defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Navbahor scores more
52%
level
25%
Dinamo Samarqand scores more
23%

Navbahor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Navbahor 3–1 Dinamo Samarqand

Navbahor beat Dinamo Samarqand 3-1 in Super League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.