Dinamo Samarqand 2–2 Navbahor: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Navbahor

8/2/2025

Super League · Round 16Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand35%

×Draw27%

Navbahor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchNavbahor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.24

Dinamo Samarqand

1.19

Navbahor

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 100 away

1.27

creates per match

1.18

1.30

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Navbahor

1.18

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.30

Navbahor

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Navbahor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Navbahor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

63%

Dinamo Samarqand or Navbahor

73%

Draw or Navbahor

65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

15%

Navbahor wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

12%

Navbahor 1+ goals

71%

Navbahor 2+ goals

35%

Navbahor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

48%

Navbahor (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.30 · 60 matches

Navbahor away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.11 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Navbahor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Navbahor attack 1.18 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

35%

level

27%

Navbahor scores more

37%

Navbahor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff