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Navarro vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Navarro
Navarro
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Covadonga
Covadonga
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Navarro26%
×Draw27%
Covadonga47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navarro
1.00
Covadonga
1.45

Covadonga creates 45% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 83 away

creates per match

Navarro
1.05
Covadonga
1.80

allows per match

Navarro
1.09
Covadonga
0.96

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Navarro or draw
53%
Navarro or Covadonga
73%
Draw or Covadonga
74%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+
9%
Covadonga wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals
63%
Navarro 2+ goals
26%
Navarro 3+ goals
8%
Covadonga 1+ goals
77%
Covadonga 2+ goals
42%
Covadonga 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)
35%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Navarro scores more
26%
level
27%
Covadonga scores more
47%

Covadonga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navarro vs Covadonga

Navarro beat Covadonga 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Tabiella in Avilés.