Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Covadonga vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Covadonga
Covadonga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Navarro
Navarro
10/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 8Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Covadonga60%
×Draw23%
Navarro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Covadonga
1.81
Navarro
0.83

Covadonga creates 118% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 63 away

creates per match

Covadonga
1.99
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

Covadonga
0.78
Navarro
1.63

finishing

Covadonga+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Covadonga ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Covadonga or draw
83%
Covadonga or Navarro
77%
Draw or Navarro
40%

Winning margin

Covadonga wins by 2+
35%
Navarro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Covadonga 1+ goals
84%
Covadonga 2+ goals
54%
Covadonga 3+ goals
27%
Navarro 1+ goals
56%
Navarro 2+ goals
20%
Navarro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Covadonga (draw refunded)
78%
Navarro (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Covadonga at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.78 · 85 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Covadonga attack 1.99 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.81

Navarro attack 0.89 + Covadonga defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Covadonga scores more
60%
level
23%
Navarro scores more
17%

Covadonga at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Covadonga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Covadonga 2–0 Navarro

Covadonga beat Navarro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal in Oviedo.