Navalcarnero vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Navalcarnero33%
Internacional de Madrid35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 12 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Navalcarnero ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Navalcarnero at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches
Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Navalcarnero attack 0.92 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96
Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + Navalcarnero defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Internacional de Madrid at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Real Sociedad II
Athletic Club II
Amorebieta
Calahorra
Tudelano
SD Logroñés
Mutilvera
Ejea
Izarra
Portugalete
Haro Deportivo
Deportivo Alavés II
Barakaldo
Leioa
Real Unión
Racing Santander
Arenas Getxo
Ebro
Osasuna II
Tarazona
Laredo
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II
Zamora
Unionistas de Salamanca
Real Valladolid II
Cultural Leonesa
Coruxo
Salamanca UDS
Pontevedra
Real Oviedo II
Lealtad
Sporting Gijón II
Guijuelo
Covadonga
Racing Ferrol
Deportivo La Coruna
Numancia
Langreo
Compostela
Marino de Luanco
Ibiza
Barcelona B
FC Andorra
Gimnastic
Alcoyano
Villarreal II
Peña Deportiva
Espanyol II
Prat
Olot
Atzeneta
L'Hospitalet
Orihuela
Valencia II
Cornellà
Llagostera
Hércules
Lleida Esportiu
Badalona
La Nucía
Levante II
Linares Deportivo
Ucam Murcia
Algeciras
Real Betis II
San Fernando CD
Sanluqueño
Las Palmas II
El Ejido
Granada II
Marbella
Yeclano
Recreativo Huelva
Lorca Deportiva
Marino
Sevilla Atletico
Linense
Cordoba
Real Murcia
Tamaraceite
Cádiz II
Badajoz
SS Reyes
Real Madrid II
ExtremaduraInternacional de Madrid
CF Talavera
Melilla
Socuéllamos
Poblense
Atlético Madrid II
Villarrubia
Las Rozas
Getafe II
Villarrobledo
Rayo Majadahonda
Atlético Baleares
Villanovense
Mérida ADNavalcarnero
Don BenitoAlgecirasSan Fernando CDSanluqueñoLinenseTamaraceiteCádiz IILas Palmas IIRecreativo HuelvaMarbellaMarinoUcam MurciaLinares DeportivoReal Betis IISevilla AtleticoCordobaReal MurciaGranada IIEl EjidoYeclanoLorca DeportivaCelta de Vigo IIUnionistas de SalamancaZamoraDeportivo La CorunaRacing FerrolCompostelaPontevedraCoruxoSalamanca UDSGuijueloBurgosCultural LeonesaReal Valladolid IINumanciaLangreoMarino de LuancoReal Oviedo IILealtadSporting Gijón IICovadongaReal Sociedad IIAthletic Club IIAmorebietaRacing SantanderReal UniónArenas GetxoLaredoPortugaleteDeportivo Alavés IIBarakaldoLeioaTudelanoCalahorraSD LogroñésEbroOsasuna IITarazonaMutilveraEjeaIzarraHaro DeportivoGimnasticBarcelona BFC AndorraLlagosteraCornellàBadalonaLleida EsportiuEspanyol IIL'HospitaletPratOlotIbizaAlcoyanoVillarreal IIHérculesLa NucíaLevante IIAtzenetaPeña DeportivaOrihuelaValencia IISS ReyesReal Madrid IIInternacional de MadridRayo MajadahondaAtlético BalearesNavalcarneroLas RozasAtlético Madrid IIPoblenseGetafe IIBadajozExtremaduraCF TalaveraVillanovenseDon BenitoMérida ADMelillaVillarrubiaSocuéllamosVillarrobledoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Navalcarnero host Internacional de Madrid on Sunday, 14 March 2021 at 15:30. The match is part of the Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Navalcarnero vs Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid beat Navalcarnero 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 14, 2021.
Goals: David Rabadán (9'), Chicha Aguilera (87').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Mariano González in Navalcarnero.