Internacional de Madrid 1–1 Navalcarnero

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Navalcarnero

Rubén Ramos 52' (pen)

Manu Jaimez 67'

12/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid45%

×Draw30%

Navalcarnero25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchNavalcarnero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.79

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Navalcarnero

0.79

Internacional de Madrid creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

0.75

0.83

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Navalcarnero

0.75

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Navalcarnero

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Navalcarnero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

75%

Internacional de Madrid or Navalcarnero

70%

Draw or Navalcarnero

55%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

19%

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

69%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

33%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

55%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

19%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

64%

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Navalcarnero away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Navalcarnero defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Navalcarnero attack 0.75 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

45%

level

30%

Navalcarnero scores more

25%

Internacional de Madrid at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Franco← Arthur

50'

Reguera← Gonzalo Poley

50'

Víctor Villacañas← Adrián Mance

52'

Rubén RamosPenalty

57'

Dani Del Moral← Ramón Blázquez

57'

Facundo Esnáider← Fran Pérez

67'

Manu Jaimez

75'

Adrián Sanchez← Mario García

79'

A. Rashiti← Adrià de Mesa

79'

Fran Cortés← Sergio Arribas

85'

Manu Monteagudo← David Rodríguez

Internacional

Navalcarnero

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

46'▲Franco←▼Arthur

50'▲Reguera←▼Gonzalo Poley

50'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Adrián Mance

79'▲A. Rashiti←▼Adrià de Mesa

79'▲Fran Cortés←▼Sergio Arribas

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

FrancoRegueraVillacañasRashitiCortésAguileraMarcosValero

Manager: Luis Ayllón

57'▲Dani Del Moral←▼Ramón Blázquez

57'▲Facundo Esnáider←▼Fran Pérez

75'▲Adrián Sanchez←▼Mario García

85'▲Manu Monteagudo←▼David Rodríguez

Navalcarnero substitutes

MoralEsnáiderSanchezMonteagudoRamónCanoOliveraEsnáiderDíaz

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Navalcarnero

Internacional de Madrid and Navalcarnero drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 12, 2020.

Goals: Rubén Ramos (52' pen), Manu Jaimez (67').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Navalcarnero — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Navalcarnero