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Navalcarnero vs Flat Earth — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Flat Earth
Flat Earth
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero53%
×Draw26%
Flat Earth21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navalcarnero
1.50
Flat Earth
0.84

Navalcarnero creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Navalcarnero
1.80
Flat Earth
0.82

allows per match

Navalcarnero
0.87
Flat Earth
1.21

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par
Flat Earth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Flat Earth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw
79%
Navalcarnero or Flat Earth
74%
Draw or Flat Earth
47%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+
27%
Flat Earth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals
78%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
44%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
19%
Flat Earth 1+ goals
57%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
21%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
71%
Flat Earth (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Flat Earth away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + Flat Earth defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Flat Earth attack 0.82 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Navalcarnero scores more
53%
level
26%
Flat Earth scores more
21%

Navalcarnero at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Navalcarnero 0–1 Flat Earth

Flat Earth beat Navalcarnero 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Mariano González in Navalcarnero.