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Flat Earth vs Navalcarnero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
CANC
00:00
Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flat Earth32%
×Draw30%
Navalcarnero38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
0.97
Navalcarnero
1.10

Navalcarnero creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
Navalcarnero
1.31

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
Navalcarnero
0.69

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

Navalcarnero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
62%
Flat Earth or Navalcarnero
70%
Draw or Navalcarnero
68%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
12%
Navalcarnero wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
62%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
25%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
7%
Navalcarnero 1+ goals
67%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
30%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
45%
Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Navalcarnero away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + Navalcarnero defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.97

Navalcarnero attack 1.31 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Flat Earth scores more
32%
level
30%
Navalcarnero scores more
38%

Navalcarnero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flat Earth vs Navalcarnero — Match Preview

Flat Earth face Navalcarnero on March 14, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Flat Earth host Navalcarnero at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.