Naval 1–1 Atlético Mineros: Result & Stats

Naval

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Mineros

5/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Naval50%

×Draw27%

Atlético Mineros23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavalExpected goals in this matchAtlético Mineros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.90

Naval

1.46

Atlético Mineros

0.90

Naval creates 62% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

1.05

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Naval

1.05

Atlético Mineros

0.91

allows per match

Naval

0.89

Atlético Mineros

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naval+0.00on par

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Atlético Mineros →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Naval or draw

77%

Naval or Atlético Mineros

73%

Draw or Atlético Mineros

50%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+

25%

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals

77%

Naval 2+ goals

43%

Naval 3+ goals

18%

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Mineros 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Mineros 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)

68%

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Atlético Mineros away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.88 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Atlético Mineros attack 0.91 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Naval scores more

50%

level

27%

Atlético Mineros scores more

23%

Naval at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff