Atlético Mineros 1–1 Naval: Result & Stats

Atlético Mineros

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Naval

1/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Estadio Pepín Cadelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Mineros33%

×Draw26%

Naval42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético MinerosExpected goals in this matchNaval

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.46

Atlético Mineros

1.27

Naval

1.46

Naval creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 64 away

1.09

creates per match

1.23

1.68

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Atlético Mineros

1.09

Naval

1.23

allows per match

Atlético Mineros

1.68

Naval

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineros+0.00on par

Naval+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineros ↓

Naval →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Mineros or draw

58%

Atlético Mineros or Naval

74%

Draw or Naval

67%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineros wins by 2+

14%

Naval wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Atlético Mineros 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Mineros 2+ goals

36%

Atlético Mineros 3+ goals

14%

Naval 1+ goals

77%

Naval 2+ goals

43%

Naval 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineros (draw refunded)

44%

Naval (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineros at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

Naval away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineros attack 1.09 + Naval defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Naval attack 1.23 + Atlético Mineros defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Mineros scores more

33%

level

26%

Naval scores more

42%

Naval at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff