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Navad Urmia vs Naft Gachsaran — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
M. Zeinali 90' (pen)
O. Alipour 30'
2/2/2026Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navad Urmia36%
×Draw34%
Naft Gachsaran30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.91
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

Navad Urmia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.67
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.80
Naft Gachsaran
1.14

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Naft Gachsaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
70%
Navad Urmia or Naft Gachsaran
66%
Draw or Naft Gachsaran
64%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
13%
Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
60%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
23%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
6%
Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
55%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
19%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
55%
Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.67 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Navad Urmia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
36%
level
34%
Naft Gachsaran scores more
30%

Navad Urmia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
O. Alipour
90'
M. ZeinaliPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Navad Urmia 1–1 Naft Gachsaran

Navad Urmia and Naft Gachsaran drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 2, 2026.

Goals: O. Alipour (30'), M. Zeinali (90' pen).