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Naft Gachsaran vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
M. Ghelichkhani 65'
9/11/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Naft Gachsaran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Naft Gachsaran45%
×Draw35%
Navad Urmia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
0.98
Navad Urmia
0.56

Naft Gachsaran creates 75% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 46 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Navad Urmia
1.09

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
80%
Naft Gachsaran or Navad Urmia
65%
Draw or Navad Urmia
55%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
17%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
62%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
26%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
8%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
43%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
11%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
69%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Navad Urmia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
45%
level
35%
Navad Urmia scores more
20%

Naft Gachsaran at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
M. Ghelichkhani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naft Gachsaran vs Navad Urmia

Naft Gachsaran beat Navad Urmia 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Ghelichkhani (65').

The match was played at Naft Gachsaran Stadium in Gachsaran.